Worst Malaysia sukuk drought since 2010 seen easing this quarter

The Edge Markets, 1 October 2015

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 1): Malaysian companies building railways and power plants under Prime Minister Najib Razak’s $444 billion development program will help revive sukuk sales from the slowest quarter since 2010, said AmInvestment Bank Bhd.

Corporate issuance could rise to as much as 60 billion ringgit ($13.5 billion) for the full year, said Mohd. Effendi Abdullah, head of Islamic markets at Kuala Lumpur-based AmInvestment Bank, after sales slumped to 7.2 billion ringgit in the third quarter. While the forecast would mark a pickup from the 31.5 billion ringgit sold so far this year, offerings would still remain below levels for the past three.

More Shariah-compliant bond sales are likely to be announced once the U.S. goes ahead with an expected interest- rate increase, removing an uncertainty that’s stifled issuance, said Mohd Effendi. Jimah Power East Sdn., a unit of the state electricity company, plans to sell 10 billion ringgit in October in what will be Malaysia’s third-biggest sukuk sale of all time. DanaInfra Nasional Bhd., which is financing a new subway system in Kuala Lumpur, is due to announce a 40 billion ringgit program in the fourth quarter, according to people familiar with the matter.

“The sukuk pipeline looks better now,” said Mohd Effendi at Malaysia’s third-biggest Islamic bond arranger of 2014. “If demand is healthy, this could encourage more issuers to tap the market.”

Quarterly Slide

Islamic bond sales in the world’s biggest market for the debt dropped 56 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Issuance in the first nine months of 2015 declined 37 percent from a year earlier. Offerings totaled 65.1 billion ringgit last year.

“It’s a challenging time for arrangers and issuers,” said Mohamed Azahari Kamil, Kuala Lumpur-based chief executive officer of Asian Finance Bank Bhd., the Malaysian unit of Qatar Islamic Bank SAQ. “So long as the ongoing uncertainty in the local and global markets persists, sukuk sales are unlikely to pick up substantially.”

The U.S. refrained from increasing interest rates in September, keeping markets in limbo as to when it will tighten monetary policy. Fed officials have indicated they may make a move at either one of this year’s two remaining meetings, in October and December.

Prospects of higher U.S. interest rates have drained capital from emerging markets and pushed up borrowing costs for bond issuers. In Malaysia, yields on top-rated, 10-year conventional corporate notes climbed 25 basis points to a four- year high of 4.87 percent in the third quarter, a central bank index shows. That was the biggest three-month increase since March 2014.

Still Depleted

AmInvestment’s Mohd Effendi said sukuk issuers that need the funds will still go ahead with sales even if market conditions are tough because they can structure longer-maturity debt to appeal to pension funds and insurers.

Prime Minister Najib is farming out infrastructure projects to the private sector as well as government-linked companies. He is seeking to transform Malaysia into a developed economy by 2020 and announced last October that the nation will start work on projects valued at 75 billion ringgit this year.

“We expect large infrastructure and utility issuance in the fourth quarter, but sales are anticipated to be 25 percent lower than 2014,” said Angus Salim Amran, Kuala Lumpur- based head of financial markets at RHB Investment Bank Bhd., a unit of Malaysia’s fourth- biggest sukuk arranger last year.

(Web source: http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/worst-malaysia-sukuk-drought- 2010-seen-easing-quarter)